Uniswap Labs · October 30, 2026
How TJAR Works
My published explainer of TJAR’s fee-conversion mechanism, searcher incentives, and configurable release terms.
Read on Uniswap Labs →Writing
Essays on prediction markets, mechanism design, and decentralized trading, published here and elsewhere.
Supercycle · October 21, 2026
Prediction Markets Need Indices
Prediction market indices turn individual event prices into transparent measures of broader conditions such as geopolitical stability and AI progress.
Read on Supercycle →June 5, 2026
The Price Is Not the Probability
Why prediction market prices are not probabilities. Contract rules, resolvers, collateral, hedging flow, and order books pull the price away from true odds.
Read article →April 14, 2026
When Prediction Markets Need Stake
Play-money prediction markets are surprisingly accurate, until manipulation pays. Why high-stakes markets need real money at stake, and the tradeoffs it brings.
Read article →March 24, 2026
How Prediction Markets Can Ascend
Many prediction markets would make valuable public signals but aren't self-sustaining. Cross-subsidization can fund them and grow the category beyond traders.
Read article →