June 5, 2026
The Price Is Not the Probability
Why prediction market prices are not probabilities. Contract rules, resolvers, collateral, hedging flow, and order books pull the price away from true odds.
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Long-form essays mirrored here for durable attribution, search visibility, and easier research access.
April 14, 2026
When Prediction Markets Need Stake
Play-money prediction markets are surprisingly accurate, until manipulation pays. Why high-stakes markets need real money at stake, and the tradeoffs it brings.
Read article →March 24, 2026
How Prediction Markets Can Ascend
Many prediction markets would make valuable public signals but aren't self-sustaining. Cross-subsidization can fund them and grow the category beyond traders.
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